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Global Economy Article, Investors See World Growth Risk From $70 Oil
NEW YORK and LONDON, December 13, 2005 Investors expect the global economy to maintain its current momentum in 2006 so long as the price of oil remains below $69 per barrel, according to Merrill Lynch's Survey of Fund Managers for December. This is only $4 higher than the $65 per barrel average that Merrill Lynch's own senior commodities strategist expects for the next 12 months.
In keeping with their relaxed view on the likely impact of oil prices, investors participating in December's survey are confident the United States will avoid a recession next year. In a new question, 93 percent of fund managers deem two consecutive quarters of negative real U.S. GDP growth in 2006 to be either fairly or very unlikely. Six percent say such a scenario is fairly likely and only one percent says it is very likely.
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